Monthly Archives: May 2015

Cuban-Americans: An important island *in* Florida

Even before U.S. and Cuban negotiators met Thursday for talks on resuming relations, presidential campaign staffs had been focusing on effects of the thaw and the outsized role that Cuban-Americans may play in next year’s election, especially among Hispanics.

The reason: They are more likely to vote than other Hispanic groups and are highly concentrated in Florida, a swing state, making them easier to reach for issues and fundraising.

In wooing immigrant voters, politicians weigh totals but also the share who are voters, which may be relatively small because many aren’t citizens or don’t register. Hispanics made up 17% of the population in 2012, but just 10% of voters.

Cubans, however, are overrepresented. Nationwide, they were 4% of Hispanics in 2012 but 7% of Hispanic voters. Two-thirds of eligible Cubans voted, compared with just under half of all Hispanics.

HispanicGroupVoting2012

In Florida, Cubans represented 36% of Hispanic voters, according to an exit poll by Bendixen & Armandi, a Hispanic research firm. Puerto Ricans made up 27% and voters from South America, 22%.

Another key factor: fully half of all Cuban-Americans live in just two southeast Florida counties — Miami-Dade and Broward — and  60% live in just nine Florida counties. That helps fund-raising, advertising, making appearances and driving turnout.

And they have become a swing bloc in a swing state. The Cuban-American community had already drifted from fierce anti-Castro roots and solid GOP support. Exit polls showed that Florida’s Cuban-Americans split about evenly between President Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012,  helping the president win Florida.

Add the announced or likely GOP presidential candidacies of two major Florida politicians — former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio, himself the son of Cuban immigrants — and Cuban-Americans may be harbingers of the election.

By comparison, there are almost  as many Salvadoran-Americans as Cuban-Americans, according to 2013 Census data. But 59% of Salvadoran-American adults are not citizens and can’t register to vote, compared with just 29% of Cuban-American adults.

Less well-known but growing in importance: Florida’s 600,000 Puerto Ricans of voting age, who enjoy U.S. citizenship by birth. Thousands arrive each  year, fleeing the commonwealth’s ailing economy and rising crime. Many settle in central Florida, especially Orange County.

Overall, 3.1 million Puerto Ricans of voting age live on the mainland, but their presidential impact is muted because 43% live in the reliably Democratic states of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts.

–Paul Overberg

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Can suburbs catch up with cities?

The post-recession growth of large cities is slowing as suburbs — and their contribution to the economy– finally recover, Census estimates released today show.

Over half of the cities with more than 250,000 people added fewer residents than the previous year, according to calculations by demographer William Frey of the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank.

And in 53 metro areas over 1 million people, central cities slipped to the same 1% growth rate as their suburbs, Frey said. In 2012, those same cities were growing 20% faster than their suburbs. From 2000-10, the reverse was true: Those suburbs grew at three times the rate of their cities.

The trend may signal that smaller cities and suburbs can once again draw people seeking work and affordable housing.

“I don’t think we’ll know for sure until we have a full-fledged economic resurgence,” Frey said.

City-vs-suburb
City-vs-suburbs

But the last decade may have given large cities a strong leg up in the competition. Frey found that almost half of large cities already have grown more since 2010 than they did in the previous decade.

One is San Jose, which reached 1.02 million and became the 10th city to top 1 million (not including Detroit, which fell under 1 million in the 1990s.) Riding Silicon Valley’s boom, San Jose has grown 6.6% since 2010.

That boom also boosted San Francisco by 1.3% last year, enough to step over Indianapolis to become the 13th-largest city at 852,459. The effects of the boom have spread across San Francisco Bay, where Oakland has grown almost 6% since 2010, reversing a 2% drop in the previous decade.

Other highlights:

— Denver vaulted Washington, Memphis and Boston to become 21st-largest, at 663,862, up more than  2% last year and 11% since 2010.

— Las Vegas, once again growing strongly, stepped over Louisville, as did Portland, Oregon, to reach 29th and 28th, respectively. Louisville has grown almost 11% since 2010, but Portland has grown 17% and Las Vegas, 28%.

— Almost a decade after Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans grew 1.4% to 384,320, topping Arlington, Texas for 50th. It has grown almost 12% since 2010 but remains 20% smaller than in 2000.

— Just 12 of the 100 largest cities lost population in the last year, and just seven have done so since 2010: Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Toledo, Buffalo and Baton Rouge.

–Texas’ five largest cities — Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin and Forth Worth — together added 125,000 people, or 1.5%, to reach 6.68 million.

–Paul Overberg

Unemployment rate obsession

Market players and financial journalists are hyper-focused this week over the April unemployment report, which is due Friday, following a shaky March report.

But the unemployment rate and job growth are inadequate measures. Adding people who can only get part-time work or have given up looking, for example, nearly doubles the  unemployment rate of 5.5%.

BLSUnemployment

Some of the rate’s recent improvement is due to boomers swelling the retirement ranks. Workforce participation – the share of people 16 or older who are working or looking for work – has dropped from 66% to under 63% since 2008.

Analysts — and the journalists who cover them — focus largely on the two headline numbers because they move markets.  Here are other yardsticks to help you get the full story:

  • Gallup’s payroll-to-population rate. It counts adults working at least 30 hours a week for an employer and divides them by the population. March: 44.1%, the highest for that month since tracking began in 2010. This omits some part-timers and all self-employed workers, but it’s broader than official measures and unaffected by most changes in the makeup of the workforce.

GallupP2pIndex

  •  Welch Consulting, an economic research firm, produces an index of full-time equivalent workers, which washes out changes in the size and age of the population. March: 98.3, unchanged from February but up 1.1% from a year earlier. It was launched at 100 in 2004. The index also shows that women have recouped recession job losses but men remain 3% shy of that mark.

WelchConsultingIndex

  • Turnover. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ March report is due next Tuesday. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey shows how many jobs are open and how many workers were hired, laid off, fired or quit. The latter is considered an acid test of workers’ confidence. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has said she follows it closely. In February, quits hit 1.6%, up from 1.4% a year earlier. The survey showed 5.1 million openings or 3.5%, up from 2.9% a year earlier. Calculated Risk blog offers details.

JOLTSChart6

-Paul Overberg