Tag Archives: census

Cuban-Americans: An important island *in* Florida

Even before U.S. and Cuban negotiators met Thursday for talks on resuming relations, presidential campaign staffs had been focusing on effects of the thaw and the outsized role that Cuban-Americans may play in next year’s election, especially among Hispanics.

The reason: They are more likely to vote than other Hispanic groups and are highly concentrated in Florida, a swing state, making them easier to reach for issues and fundraising.

In wooing immigrant voters, politicians weigh totals but also the share who are voters, which may be relatively small because many aren’t citizens or don’t register. Hispanics made up 17% of the population in 2012, but just 10% of voters.

Cubans, however, are overrepresented. Nationwide, they were 4% of Hispanics in 2012 but 7% of Hispanic voters. Two-thirds of eligible Cubans voted, compared with just under half of all Hispanics.

HispanicGroupVoting2012

In Florida, Cubans represented 36% of Hispanic voters, according to an exit poll by Bendixen & Armandi, a Hispanic research firm. Puerto Ricans made up 27% and voters from South America, 22%.

Another key factor: fully half of all Cuban-Americans live in just two southeast Florida counties — Miami-Dade and Broward — and  60% live in just nine Florida counties. That helps fund-raising, advertising, making appearances and driving turnout.

And they have become a swing bloc in a swing state. The Cuban-American community had already drifted from fierce anti-Castro roots and solid GOP support. Exit polls showed that Florida’s Cuban-Americans split about evenly between President Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012,  helping the president win Florida.

Add the announced or likely GOP presidential candidacies of two major Florida politicians — former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio, himself the son of Cuban immigrants — and Cuban-Americans may be harbingers of the election.

By comparison, there are almost  as many Salvadoran-Americans as Cuban-Americans, according to 2013 Census data. But 59% of Salvadoran-American adults are not citizens and can’t register to vote, compared with just 29% of Cuban-American adults.

Less well-known but growing in importance: Florida’s 600,000 Puerto Ricans of voting age, who enjoy U.S. citizenship by birth. Thousands arrive each  year, fleeing the commonwealth’s ailing economy and rising crime. Many settle in central Florida, especially Orange County.

Overall, 3.1 million Puerto Ricans of voting age live on the mainland, but their presidential impact is muted because 43% live in the reliably Democratic states of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts.

–Paul Overberg

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New study challenges immigrant “catch-up” theory

New research is challenging the consensus view of how the USA absorbed the huge wave of immigrant workers who arrived from 1850 to 1910.

Earlier studies showed that on average, immigrants started in lower-skilled jobs compared with native workers, but caught up within a generation as they learned English and adopted American customs. This “start hungry, work hard, sacrifice and succeed” formula has become a version of “the American Dream.”

The reality was more complicated. A study that traced thousands of workers from 1900 to 1920 through their census forms showed that the average immigrant  made about the same amount as natives and moved up the occupational ladder at about the same rate.

Probing more deeply, the authors found that immigrants from high-income European nations – think Austria, England, France and Germany – made more upon arrival than comparable native workers and kept an edge as they assimilated. At the same time, workers from lower-income nations – such as Ireland, Italy and the Scandinavian countries – started close to or slightly below native workers in terms of income, and progressed at about the same rate.

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Not all immigrants fared the same in the U.S. For many, success depended on the skills and wealth they brought with them. Amounts are in 2010 dollars.

The work was done by Ran Abramitzky of Stanford, Leah Platt Boustan of UCLA and Katherine Eriksson of Cal Poly. A version was published in the Journal of Political Economy last summer. The more detailed version released this week shows that average immigrant workers in the rapidly industrializing Midwest — Ohio, Illinois and Michigan — outearned natives, while the reverse was true in New England and the Great Plains.

The answers could shape ongoing debates about growing income inequality and how to overhaul the nation’s dysfunctional immigration policy.

The study used digital versions of census forms — which are made public after 72 years — from Ancestry.com. The forms were from 1900, 1910 and 1920.

The team focused on men between 18 and 35 years of age in 1900.   About 20,000 men who immigrated between 1880 and 1900 were paired with a similar group of 1,700 native men the same age. That let the researchers avoid averages and study actual people across 20 years as if they were in a long-term study. Lacking actual income data, the researchers used workers’ occupations to classify income. All Southern workers and black workers were excluded because few immigrants moved to the South and blacks were subject to harsh discrimination everywhere.

The consensus that immigrant workers started behind but caught up was due to the earlier need to analyze each census separately, according to the researchers. That approach misses the 25 percent of immigrants in the Great Migration who left, typically due to poor prospects. It also can’t account for the lower skill level of workers who arrived at the end of the period. Both shifts made it seem like long-term immigrants gained skills and income more than they did.

“Some of the conventional wisdom about the ‘American Dream’ for immigrants is more fiction than fact,” said Michelle Ercanbrack, a family historian at Ancestry.com. “The journey of American immigrants was far more complex than what we often think.” The service is offering free access to many of its searchable records through Monday.

The study suggests that sharp curbs on European immigration imposed in the early 1920s probably were not necessary, because the average immigrant worker arrived with  competitive skills and rose on the occupational ladder about as well as natives did. However, “we also note that migrants that arrived with low skill levels did not manage to close their skill gap with natives over time, ” the team noted.

“I wouldn’t make a prescription for today but it’s food for thought,” Abramitzky said.

He said the team is extending its work to look at cultural assimilation. They are analyzing the names that Great Wave immigrants gave to successive children. Preliminary work shows that the “foreignness” of a name affected a child’s later earnings as an adult, he said.

Abramitzky is an immigrant from Israel. His two oldest children have Hebrew names but the youngest does not.

— Paul Overberg

Counting everyone: An acid test for a democracy

Taking a census is not one of the more exciting jobs of a national government. But a census is nothing if not democratic, so it can be a canary in a coal mine, an interesting sentinel of deeper problems. Nations as diverse as Canada, Pakistan, Australia and the United States are struggling with the same thing: How to balance privacy while still collecting the data  needed for a fair distribution of spending and electoral representation.

The U.S. Census Bureau hopes to save billions of dollars on Census 2020 with a major overhaul, but it face congressional skepticism about the investment needed. April 1 marked the start of major tests — in Maricopa County, Ariz., and 20 counties around Savannah, Ga.  Among the tests: Internet response and the use of government records when people don’t fill out a form. They will shape the design of a massive infrastructure that must be ready to test by late 2018 so that it can go live in early 2020.

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Governments track people frequently through surveys and data from benefits programs. But only a census counts everyone (or tries to) at the same time and assigns them to an exact place. That seems simple but it’s very hard to do well on a national scale.

Some European nations have shifted away from taking a census in favor of assigning everyone an ID number and keeping a central register of personal data.  Don’t count on Americans embracing this idea.

Our distrust of government is just one reason that the U.S. census is so difficult to take — and so expensive. (Census 2010 cost $13 billion across a decade.) Information-sharing between agencies that is routine in some countries isn’t allowed here. Add mobility, continental sprawl, linguistic diversity and the fears of millions of immigrants living here illegally.

The United States isn’t alone:

— Citing privacy qualms, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper scrapped the detailed version of the 2011 Census for a voluntary survey. Response plunged from 94% to 67%. Citing unreliability, the government did not publish results on more than 1,000 localities where the rate fell below 50%. “One in 4 … towns disappeared from the statistical registry,” said Paul Jacobson, president of the Canadian Association for Business Economics at a Washington conference in March. Even Toronto was affected: “We’ve got hunks of the city that have disappeared from the statistical registry.” In a country that is diversifying rapidly, the gaps worry planners, researchers and businesses.

— Pakistan’s officials have finally agreed to undertake its 2008 census. It will be conducted next March with the help of the armed forces, a sign of the strife and factionalism that has delayed it. Its last census was taken in 1998, when it had 40 million fewer people.

— Australia takes a census every five years but  may skip 2016 to catch up on the cost and work of shifting to digital collection. It’s facing the same efficiency vs. privacy debate  as the USA and Canada.

Lest Americans get smug, the House of Representatives voted last year to make the American Community Survey voluntary. (The Senate did not.) ACS surveys 2.5 million households a year for the same information that the Census Bureau used to collect during the census every 10 years.

Congress, through various laws, has asked for every ACS question. Support for ACS runs deep through local governments and business groups, social scientists, civil rights and  and economic development groups.

But  distrust of government has found a home in Congress.